We looked at the Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report and calculated growth since the pandemic. We found some things that were entirely unsurprising. For instance:
Limited-service chains won the pandemic. Sales at so-called fast-casual chains rose more than 14% since the outset of the pandemic. Quick-service chains have grown by 12%. All full-service sectors have some ways to go before they catch up to their pre-pandemic levels.
Two-year sales growth by sector
Source: Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report
Quick-service chains might have done better but for buffet concepts. Technomic considers buffet chains to be quick-service restaurants, and median sales among that group declined 38%.
It’s worse than that, actually, given that at least a handful of buffet chains such as Old Country Buffet, HomeTown Buffet, Souplanation and Sweet Tomatoes all shut down completely. But it’s a sector that, on balance, is a long way from a complete recovery.
But there were some noteworthy results from the past two years. Here are a few of them:
Just serving pizza didn't guarantee sales
Total sales for quick-service pizza chains grew strongly, as you’d expect. The entire sector has grown by nearly 13% since the pandemic. And the biggest chains grew strongly, including Marco’s Pizza (43% since 2019), Papa John’s (30%) and Domino’s (23%).
But median sales for QSR pizza grew less than 2%. Numerous smaller chains in the sector, including some pizza buffet concepts, are still far from recovering from the pandemic. The bigger pizza chains with well-established digital and delivery strategies have taken share from smaller concepts.
Chipotle owns the fast-casual Mexican category
We saw a similar dynamic in the fast-casual Mexican sector. As a whole, those chains grew by nearly 19% since 2019, according to Restaurant Business calculations.
But median sales for companies in that sector actually fell by 2.6%. The reason is pretty simple: Chipotle dominates that particular business, accounting for 58% of the sector’s sales. Most of the other chains’ sales are still below their 2019 levels, including the second and third largest fast-casual Mexican concepts, Qdoba and Moe’s.
Burgers and chicken still rule
Go ahead and start a restaurant concept around some hot new product all you want but the safest bet still remains burgers and chicken, at least at limited-service chains.
On the “fast-casual” side, median sales for burger concepts are up 18% since 2019. For chicken they’re up 24%. For quick-service concepts, median sales are up nearly 11% for burger chains and 12% for chicken concepts.
As a side note in a follow-up to our previous piece on the increasing irrelevance of the term “fast casual:” Below you will see Freddy’s Frozen Custard and Steakburgers was followed by Culver’s on the list of the fastest-growing big chains. Both serve quality burgers and frozen custard and have drive-thrus, though Culver’s has a higher average check and things like pot roast on its menu. They are by all counts similar chains. Yet Freddy’s is considered “fast casual” while Culver’s is “QSR.” No, it doesn’t make sense.
First Watch is badly underappreciated
Finally, we will give you our list of the fastest-growing Top 100 chains by sales since 2019. This filters out high-growth small chains and also factors out the weirdness from 2020 and 2021.
Jersey Mike’s just keeps rolling, nearly two-thirds bigger than it was two years ago. But a few other chains have done quite well, too, including Tropical Smoothie Café, the newly public Dutch Bros., and Raising Cane’s. But maybe the biggest standout on this list is the criminally underappreciated First Watch. Yes, First Watch has had a better pandemic than Chipotle. You figure it out.
Fastest-growing Top 100 chains since 2019
Source: Technomic Top 500 Chain Restaurant Report